Despite Israeli media reports pointing to a possible broad escalation in Lebanon following the Florida talks between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump, no clear picture has yet emerged of the course Netanyahu is likely to pursue after his return to Tel Aviv across the region’s multiple fronts, including Gaza, Syria and Lebanon. Still, an escalatory trajectory in Lebanon remains the most likely scenario for now, according to Annahar.

In Beirut, officials are awaiting clearer signals through diplomatic channels in the coming days, particularly from the U.S. administration. Attention is also centered on a report expected from the Lebanese army command on January 5, which is to be submitted to the cabinet and is expected to deliver a definitive assessment on whether the first phase of restricting weapons south of the Litani River has been completed. This would mark the transition to a second phase extending between the Litani and the Awali rivers.

Another development has surfaced ahead of a series of key dates in early January, with information indicating that a Mechanism Committee meeting scheduled for January 7 will be held at the military level only, without civilian participation. The decision was attributed to organizational reasons linked to the unavailability of some members, with a new date for the civilian-level meeting to be announced later.

Taken together, these factors suggest that uncertainty is likely to persist unless there are sudden developments on the ground. Any large-scale Israeli military action in the immediate term appears unlikely, at least for now, due to poor weather conditions and a storm sweeping the region, which would complicate major military operations. Officials caution, however, that this offers only temporary reassurance, as escalation remains the dominant possibility, based on assessments from both local and international sources.

The uncertainty has also helped spur renewed diplomatic activity. It is now widely expected that French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian will return to Beirut on January 7, with his visit set to focus on preparations for a conference to support the Lebanese army and on pushing ahead with the approval of a long-delayed financial gap law. Saudi envoy Yazid bin Farhan is also expected to visit Beirut next week.