Hezbollah is shifting towards a more dispersed and guerrilla-style strategy as it seeks to rebuild after its confrontation with Israel, while Iran continues to find ways to replenish the group’s military capabilities, an Israeli research centre said in an assessment published on Monday.

The Alma Research and Education Center said Hezbollah was unlikely to return soon to the large-scale conventional military strategy it had pursued before its infrastructure and command networks were heavily hit.

Instead, the group appears to be preparing for a prolonged, lower-intensity campaign based on small infiltration attempts, explosives and drones, according to the assessment.

Hezbollah could seek to operate inside the security zone controlled by Israeli forces in southern Lebanon and potentially attempt to approach Israeli territory, Alma said.

While such operations would probably be contained by Israeli forces, they could allow Hezbollah to probe defensive arrangements and identify weaknesses for use in future confrontations.

The centre said the possibility of Hezbollah fighters remaining concealed in southern Lebanon could not be ruled out. The group’s extensive tunnel network and other military infrastructure, combined with the area’s difficult terrain, could allow isolated operatives to remain active even after losing contact with their commanders.

Israeli forces have encountered several Hezbollah operatives in the area in recent months, Alma said, adding that the group could still threaten troops through explosives, ambushes and other guerrilla tactics.

The presence of booby-trapped infrastructure in civilian areas could further complicate Israeli efforts to dismantle Hezbollah’s remaining networks, the centre said.

Drones are another growing component of the group’s strategy. Alma said Hezbollah had used FPV drones against Israeli military targets, including Iron Dome batteries, but lacked enough trained operators to use the weapons at their full potential.

The group has nevertheless accelerated training for drone operators, suggesting that unmanned systems are becoming increasingly important to its post-war military planning, the centre said.

Alma estimated that Hezbollah retains up to 15,000 rockets, alongside fewer than 40,000 regular fighters and tens of thousands of reservists.

The centre said Hezbollah was reassessing some of its more sophisticated missile capabilities, including precision-guided, cruise and shore-to-sea missiles, which it considered less effective in cost-benefit terms under the current circumstances.

At the same time, the group has not been cut off from its main external backer.

Iran continues to support Hezbollah despite the disruption of the supply network that once relied heavily on Syria, Alma said. Members of the IRGC’s Quds Force Lebanon Corps remain active in Beirut and the Beqaa Valley, according to the centre.

The fall of Assad has forced Iran to seek alternative methods of moving weapons and resources into Lebanon. Alma said suspected smuggling operations had been detected on an almost weekly basis, although it did not establish how many had succeeded.

The centre cited an alleged attempt last month to move weapons through the al-Tanf crossing in a fuel truck.

The continued flow of Iranian support places Hezbollah’s military recovery at odds with efforts by Lebanon’s authorities to consolidate control over weapons and prevent armed groups from independently determining the country’s security policy.

Beirut is seeking to strengthen the state’s monopoly over arms and assert its authority over decisions of war and peace, while Hezbollah maintains that it needs an independent military capability.

The dispute is unfolding as Israeli forces continue operations in southern Lebanon despite US-backed negotiations aimed at securing a phased withdrawal from territory under Israeli control.

Lebanese authorities say the Israeli campaign since March 2 has killed more than 4,000 people, wounded more than 12,000 and displaced more than one million.