Assistant Secretary General of the League of Arab States Hossam Zaki said in a televised interview with al-Qahera News on Saturday, “The League of Arab States no longer classifies Hezbollah as a terrorist entity.” This statement came a day after his official visit to Beirut and meeting with the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary group, MP Mohammad Raad.

This statement is surprising at first glance, but it takes on its full meaning in light of recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East, particularly the war in Gaza, in which Hezbollah has been a support front from south Lebanon for Hamas against Israel. This has not only put the party back at the heart of the regional equation but also its Iranian sponsor.

“It’s a big decision, despite the relative media discretion with which it was made public,” Joseph Bahout, director of Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut (AUB), told L’Orient-Le Jour.

Zaki said that this about-turn would help build bridges with Hezbollah and resume the dialogue (suspended since 2016) between Arabs and the Shiite party. The Egyptian diplomat was keen to stress that the league “does not resort to labeling entities as terrorist organizations and does not adopt such lists,” which seems like an attempt to justify the legitimacy of this turnaround.

When Hezbollah was classified as a terrorist group, Lebanon and Iraq had made “reservations” about the decision. In November 2017, Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said this decision made him “laugh out loud.”

At the time, the league, at the instigation of Saudi Arabia, had called on the party to “stop promoting extremism and sectarianism, interfering in the other countries’ internal affairs and supporting terrorism in the region.”

Hezbollah was especially criticized for its support for Yemen’s Houthis, a group close to Iran but opposed by Saudi Arabia. These rebels had fired a missile at Riyadh’s international airport.

A new regional context

The geopolitical context and the balance of power have changed radically today, with Hezbollah becoming a little more acceptable in the eyes of some countries, both in the West and in the Arab world.

For some time now, openness towards Hezbollah has been manifesting. “The Shiite party is making contacts with new interlocutors, away from the spotlight,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, a researcher at the Carnegie Institute.

In May, Ammar Moussawi, Hezbollah’s head of Arab and international relations, had a brief encounter with the Saudi ambassador to Beirut, Waleed Bukhari, while the latter was offering his condolences to the Iranian ambassador following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi. Before this, the party’s head of the Liaison and Coordination Unit, Wafiq Safa, had made a surprise visit to the United Arab Emirates.

In this context, several capitals “are now calling for dialogue with Hezbollah,” said Kassem Kassir, an expert close to Hezbollah. According to several analysts, the local and regional consequences of the war in Gaza will lead to a new configuration of political relations in the Middle East.

“The announcement by the league’s official should be read in the light of the beginning of a new reality-check in the Arab world and the Gulf, as the Gaza war will soon come to an end, with the realization that Iran is now a key player in the region,” said Bahout.

While preparations for the post-Gaza period are underway, as are efforts to bring “Iran and its allies into the new equation,” Bahout anticipated. Countries in the region must at the same time contend with the mood of the Arab opinion and growing sympathy for the Shiite Hezbollah, which has succeeded in rallying Sunnis across the Arab world around its military support for the Gaza war.

According to Mohammad Obeid, an analyst close to Hezbollah’s circles, the party has succeeded in “demonstrating its Arab identity through its sacrifices in support of Palestine.” Faced with the rising popularity of the Shiite party, the Arab world is seeking to protect itself in advance and avoid going against the tide. “Continuing to call Hezbollah terrorist would, in this sense, be problematic,” said Hage Ali.

‘Hezbollah, the main interlocutor’

But long before the Gaza war, the outlines of a new Middle East had already begun to take shape. First, signing a reconciliation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Beijing on March 10, 2023, marked a major turning point in relations between the two countries, heralding a new geopolitical configuration in the region.

This was followed a month later by Syria’s return to the Arab League (May 2023), and the normalization of relations between several Arab states and Damascus — another major development, after more than a decade-long diplomatic isolation for Damascus, due to the war and massacres committed against the Syrian people and the opposition.

The Saudis also changed their attitude towards the Houthis, after long years of a difficult war in Yemen. This paved the way for some openness towards Hezbollah.

“Gaza war or not, Hezbollah has [become] the main interlocutor in the Arab world. It already is for the West — for France and the United States, and almost unabashedly so. As a result, Arab countries must [come to terms with] this new reality and start talking to Hezbollah,” said Bahout.

This analysis is supported by Obeid, who considers that the timing of the announcement came after Syria’s return to the Arab family and Hezbollah’s investment in the Palestinian cause and its new image in the region. These developments are also linked to the election of a president in Lebanon, which is struggling to materialize because Hezbollah and Amal are blocking it.

“Here too, Hezbollah is a key player and one that cannot be ignored. There will be no election unless we negotiate with the Shiite party to reach a settlement. Paving the way for such a settlement means revoking the 'terrorist' label,” said Bahout.

Several years after the withdrawal of Saudi Arabia (Beirut’s main financial backer) from the Lebanese political scene, this change of position could, according to Bahout, herald an appeasement in the region and encourage the Arabs to take a renewed interest in Lebanon, both politically and economically.