Lebanon appears to be edging dangerously close to a full-scale security collapse, as warnings of a broader war are no longer rooted in speculation but grounded in mounting political and military evidence. On the eve of Eid al-Adha, Israel escalated tensions significantly, sending what observers described as “fiery messages” deep into Lebanese territory. Fighter jets roared over Beirut’s southern suburbs and the country’s south, followed by a wave of warnings that quickly turned into destructive air raids.

In Tel Aviv’s playbook, holidays are not religious occasions but strategic opportunities to send deliver forceful signals. This comes as Washington’s stance appears to be shifting toward a more hardline approach, not only against Hezbollah, but also toward the Lebanese state and its institutions.

A Western official of Lebanese descent told kataeb.org that Lebanon is now locked in a race against time: either it reaches a comprehensive settlement that ensures long-term stability, or it faces a looming explosion that could redraw the map. He emphasized that recent U.S. warnings have been unambiguous. Washington, he said, is unlikely to stand in the way of Israeli military operations if Lebanon fails to take concrete, verifiable steps to dismantle Hezbollah’s missile arsenal.

The official added that Israel’s most recent strike on the Beirut suburbs carried multiple messages. Chief among them: Lebanon must act swiftly and decisively to remove heavy weaponry from Hezbollah’s equation. Otherwise, international support, including the continued deployment of UNIFIL peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, could become conditional on meaningful measures aimed at disarming the group.

He also pointed out that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration had previously urged Lebanon to adopt an approach similar to that of former Syrian Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam, who attempted to distinguish the authority of the state from that of armed non-state actors operating within national borders.

Regionally, the situation also appears to be shifting toward greater confrontation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly preparing for a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities; a move that could derail ongoing negotiations with Washington and revive scenarios of U.S.-Israeli military coordination for a joint operation.

Hezbollah’s arsenal has now returned to center stage, amid ongoing Israeli strikes on the group’s infrastructure and Tel Aviv’s outright refusal of any field or political truce that would allow the group to regroup or catch its breath.m. All signs suggest that pressure on Lebanon will not only continue but may intensify in the coming weeks.

This is the English adaptation of an article originally written by Chady Hilani.