France will host a four-party meeting on Thursday bringing together representatives from France, Saudi Arabia, the United States and Lebanon, as concerns mount that a potential Israeli escalation could unravel a ceasefire that has largely held for more than a year, French officials said.

According to officials in Paris cited by Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, France believes Lebanon faces an imminent risk amid repeated and increasingly explicit Israeli threats to resume military operations. French officials have also voiced unease over uncertainty surrounding Washington’s stance on Israel’s intentions, with a prevailing assessment in Paris that President Donald Trump’s administration is unlikely to exert significant pressure to restrain Israel.

Israel has accused the Lebanese army of failing to fulfill commitments made by the Lebanese government under the first phase of a plan aimed at disarming Hezbollah in areas south of the Litani River.

Caught between Israeli pressure on one side and Hezbollah’s continued refusal to relinquish its weapons on the other, France has been seeking a viable exit from the impasse and a clear, visible framework to shield Lebanon from further escalation.

French officials say they are determined to demonstrate that the Lebanese army, contrary to widespread claims, is carrying out its responsibilities regarding Hezbollah’s arms.

A proposed mechanism to track disarmament

Against this backdrop, France has proposed the creation of a new “mechanism” designed to systematically document the actions taken by the Lebanese army, relying on concrete and verifiable evidence, Asharq Al-Awsat reported.

Paris has also suggested that elements of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) accompany Lebanese army units during inspection and weapons seizure operations, record those activities, and make the findings public. The objective, French officials say, is to provide tangible proof of the army’s seriousness and of measurable results on the ground.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot summarized the initiative by saying that France is “working on a second mechanism to monitor the disarmament of Hezbollah.”

A large-scale tour organized by the Lebanese army command in southern Lebanon on December 15 — led by army commander General Rodolphe Haykal and attended by several ambassadors and military attachés — was part of that effort. The tour followed an earlier visit by representatives of UN Security Council member states, as well as a separate field visit for Lebanese and international media.

French officials say these moves were intended to underline the Lebanese government’s and army’s commitment to implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and to counter accusations of political hesitation or military shortcomings.

Diplomatic push intensifies

In recent weeks, France has sharply increased its engagement on the Lebanese file. Thursday’s meeting caps a diplomatic drive that has included, in less than a month, two visits by Anne-Claire Legendre, President Emmanuel Macron’s adviser for Middle East and Arab affairs, and Jean-Yves Le Drian, a former foreign minister and Macron’s personal envoy to Lebanon.

As part of that effort, Legendre has conducted regional consultations, including a key visit to Saudi Arabia.

Macron himself has held a series of high-level calls focused on two parallel tracks: a conference expected in the coming weeks to support the Lebanese army and security forces, and a separate international conference dedicated to economic assistance and reconstruction.

No dates have yet been announced for either event.

Why Haykal’s presence matters

Well-informed sources in Paris told Asharq Al-Awsat that Thursday’s meeting will revolve around three main priorities.

The first will be an assessment of the existing “mechanism” tasked with monitoring the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, and discussions on how to strengthen it through the new mechanism outlined by Barrot.

Another issue concerns the recent expansion of the mechanism’s membership, which now includes a Lebanese diplomat — former ambassador Simon Karam — and an Israeli representative, Yuri Resnik, director of foreign policy at Israel’s National Security Council.

Israel and the United States are pushing to widen the scope of the discussions to encompass political and economic issues, a move that has raised concerns in Beirut and drawn opposition from Hezbollah.

US envoy for Lebanon Morgan Ortagus and Le Drian, both expected to attend the Paris meeting, are also slated to travel to Lebanon afterward to participate in a session of the mechanism. Their visit underscores the growing importance of the five-party committee, which has failed, more than a year after its creation, to stop near-daily Israeli operations.

The US ambassador to Beirut, Michel Issa, will also take part in Thursday’s talks, marking his first such meeting since formally assuming his post.

Curbing Israeli escalation in Lebanon will be the second priority on the agenda. Haykal is expected to attend the meeting alongside a series of engagements at the French foreign ministry, defense ministry and presidential palace.

His participation is viewed as particularly significant, as it will allow him to present a detailed account of the challenges facing Lebanese army units, chief among them Israel’s refusal to withdraw from five additional positions it continues to occupy on Lebanese territory.

Haykal is also expected to outline the army’s achievements over the past four months south of the Litani River, as well as his broader plan for other parts of Lebanon aimed at confining weapons exclusively to the hands of the state.

Attention will also be focused on Ortagus’s presentation of US plans for Lebanon, including Washington’s efforts to push Beirut toward negotiations with Israel on political and economic issues, and the timelines the United States is setting for Lebanon to complete the process of placing all weapons under state authority.

The long-awaited army support conference

Despite the wide-ranging agenda, the central theme of Thursday’s meeting is expected to be support for the Lebanese army and security forces — seen by Paris as an indispensable preliminary step ahead of the long-promised international conference to back the army.

Two major questions remain unresolved: where the conference will be held, whether in Paris or another capital, and when it will take place. It had previously been expected before the end of the year, but that now appears increasingly unlikely.

France has openly acknowledged that confidence in Lebanon has been severely eroded in recent years, not only among potential donors in the Gulf but also elsewhere.

As a result, international partners are increasingly demanding measurable results, and are tying military and economic assistance to concrete progress, whether on security-related commitments or long-delayed economic reforms.

Another issue that could surface during the Paris talks is the Lebanese-Syrian border, which has witnessed sporadic tensions. France believes formal demarcation of the border is necessary to prevent Hezbollah from using it as an additional justification for retaining its weapons.

Paris has said it is ready to assist both Lebanon and Syria, but stresses that rebuilding trust between the two remains essential. Lebanon is seeking assurances that Syria will not again become a routine violator of its sovereignty, while Damascus fears that Hezbollah could play a destabilizing role inside Syrian territory.