As the Israel–Iran conflict approaches its second week, both nations are locked in a high-stakes battle of attrition: Israel is rapidly depleting its air-defense interceptors, while Iran is burning through its long-range missile stockpile at an alarming rate. With each side probing the other’s vulnerabilities, military officials warn that the outcome may hinge not only on battlefield strikes, but on which arsenal is exhausted first.

At the outbreak of hostilities, Israeli intelligence estimated Tehran possessed roughly 2,000 ballistic missiles. Between “one‑third and one‑half of those have been used up,” Israeli officials told The New York Times, either launched toward Israel or destroyed in Israeli strikes on storage sites.

Iran’s barrages have grown noticeably smaller in recent days. Analysts say commanders in Tehran appear worried about “running dry."

On the other hand, there is Israel’s thinning inventory of interceptors, consisting of the precision missiles that power its layered Arrow, David’s Sling and Iron Dome defences. Eight current and former security officials, most speaking on condition of anonymity, say consumption now outstrips domestic production.

“They’re not grains of rice,” said Brig. Gen. Ran Kochav, a former head of Israel’s air‑defence command who still serves in the reserves. “The number is finite.”

Israel’s forces have begun rationing interceptors, prioritising dense population centres and strategic assets such as the Dimona nuclear complex and oil refineries in Haifa.

“If a missile is supposed to hit refineries in Haifa, it’s clear that it’s more important to intercept that missile than one that will hit the Negev desert,” Kochav said.

By Wednesday, the Israeli military counted roughly 400 Iranian ballistic missiles fired since December; about 40 penetrated the shield and struck residential areas, it said. The army refuses to disclose how many interceptors remain, calling the figure a “closely guarded secret.”

A senior officer put it bluntly: Israel’s endurance now hinges on “whether we exhaust our interceptors before Iran exhausts its missiles.”

To tilt the calculus, Israeli jets have hammered the network of fixed and mobile launchers Tehran uses to fire its missiles. An Israeli official told Reuters that two‑thirds of those launchers have now been destroyed. U.S. analysts back that assessment, saying the strikes have “decimated” Iran’s ability to mount mass salvos.

“The real issue is the number of launchers, more than the number of missiles,” said Asaf  Cohen, a former senior officer in Israel’s military‑intelligence branch. “If they realise they have a problem with launch capacity, they’ll switch to harassment fire: one or two missiles at a time, aimed at separate targets.”

Beyond the missile counts, both belligerent countries face mounting costs. Israel worries its civilian death toll will spike if interceptor rationing leaves large cities exposed. Iranian cities have endured repeated power cuts and fuel shortages as Israeli strikes hit critical energy nodes.

“Now that Israel has succeeded in striking most of its nuclear targets in Iran, Israel has a window of two or three days to declare victory and end the war,” said Zohar Palti, a former senior officer in Mossad.

Others argue that victory will only come if Israel can locate and destroy Iran’s remaining 100-plus launchers; a difficult mission made more complex by Tehran’s network of underground military facilities.