Lebanese officials say Israel’s recent surge in airstrikes and operations in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley was largely anticipated, reflecting longstanding Western warnings that Israel intends to advance its plan to disarm Hezbollah on its own schedule, regardless of the constraints of the ceasefire agreement.

Security sources told Asas Media that Israel’s intensified activity north of the Litani River and in the Bekaa signals the start of a more aggressive phase. The escalation comes ahead of a scheduled meeting of the military “mechanism” committee on Wednesday, which will take place without civilian participants, and a cabinet session planned for Thursday.

At the cabinet meeting, Lebanese army commander General Rodolphe Haykal is expected to present a comprehensive report on operations since the ceasefire took effect on November 27, 2024. The briefing will detail missions carried out under the mechanism committee and confirm that the army has deployed across the entire area south of the Litani River, except for positions still held by Israeli forces. A military source said these Israeli-occupied positions extend more than 12 kilometers along the border.

Some areas classified as “liberated” remain inaccessible to the Lebanese army, sources said, while Israeli forces continue to enter and exit freely, including demolishing homes and conducting security sweeps.

Army Report and Operational Challenges

According to Asas Media, the army’s fourth report will include detailed military assessments, leaving political leaders to weigh the implications—particularly regarding any decision to expand the weapons control plan north of the Litani River.

The report is expected to highlight several operational challenges, including large stockpiles of unexploded ordnance that require lengthy clearance and tunnel networks that remain partially intact. Among them is a military facility discovered last December between the towns of Siddiqine and Kafra. Images of the site were leaked this week, prompting the Lebanese army to launch an investigation. Military sources said neutralizing the facility could take weeks or even months.

Other tunnels remain unentered due to the complexity and risk involved, with full clearance expected to require extended operations to remove weapons, ammunition, and missiles.

General Haykal is also expected to outline the army’s logistical and operational needs to complete its mission south of the Litani and to prepare for a potential expansion northward, ultimately toward the Awali River. Some of these requirements cannot be met without international support, with a donor conference for the Lebanese army tentatively scheduled for February, though sources said no firm commitments have been secured.

Political Pressure and Divergent Approaches

The Lebanese government faces growing challenges over whether and how to implement the second phase of the disarmament plan north of the Litani.

Sources said the army will not announce any transition itself, leaving the decision squarely to the government. As of now, there is no clear indication of the cabinet’s intended course at Thursday’s session.

During the holiday period, quiet political discussions reportedly took place between President Joseph Aoun, Hezbollah leaders, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on managing the next phase. These talks highlighted differences between Aoun and Berri on one side and Salam on the other, particularly regarding Hezbollah’s firm rejection of any move to disarm north of the Litani.

A key unresolved question is whether the government will commit, under external pressure, to a fixed timeline for completing disarmament north of the river. Military sources say the army opposes such a commitment, pointing to its experience south of the Litani as evidence that operations of this scale cannot realistically be completed in a matter of months.

“The core issue is whether an arsenal built up over decades of clandestine military activity can be dismantled in such a short period of time,” one military source said.