Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is considering launching a large-scale military operation in the coming weeks as he seeks to rebuild his popularity ahead of a closely watched Knesset election, according to European diplomatic sources familiar with the matter.

The sources told Erem News that Netanyahu could use a new military operation as an electoral tool to restore support and shift attention away from the security failures surrounding the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack, which triggered the war in Gaza.

Opening a new front in Lebanon is among Netanyahu's leading options for rallying voters, particularly in Israel's northern settlements and villages, the sources said. Such a move could help him consolidate the bloc of support needed to form the next government.

The sources said Netanyahu's options are also shaped by restrictions imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on military action against Iran, particularly strikes that could pull Washington into an unwanted confrontation.

Oct. 7 as opposition's "red card"

For Netanyahu's opponents, Oct. 7 has become a powerful political weapon ahead of the election, with the attack raising questions about who should bear political and military responsibility for the security failures that allowed it to happen.

The prime minister is therefore seeking to portray himself as the only leader capable of protecting Israel from threats posed by Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, while looking for a security crisis that could reinforce the perception of an ongoing external threat, analysts said.

Hussein Al-Deek, a researcher specializing in U.S.-Israeli relations, said Netanyahu's central challenge is the possibility that the coming Knesset election could effectively become a referendum on his performance both before and after Oct. 7, 2023.

"The opposition is trying to keep the central question alive: Who bears political and military responsibility for the failure that occurred on Oct. 7?" Al-Deek told Erem News.

Israel's security and intelligence establishments remain engaged in a debate over the establishment of an official commission of inquiry with broad powers to investigate the events of Oct. 7 and determine responsibility for the failures, he said.

That issue gives the opposition an opportunity that was not available to it in previous elections, Al-Deek said. It can present the Oct. 7 attack as evidence of a broader failure by the government's political and security leadership, particularly Netanyahu, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

The failure, he said, should not be viewed simply as an isolated intelligence breakdown.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, is seeking to counter the opposition's attacks by emphasizing what he portrays as growing regional threats and presenting himself as the leader best equipped to confront Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.

Security, Iran and U.S. ties on voters' agenda

But Oct. 7 will not necessarily be the sole issue determining the election, Al-Deek said.

The central contest will be over which side can most effectively use the attack to its advantage, he said, even though the events remain a major political liability for Netanyahu. The prime minister faces the difficult task of explaining the failures to voters while confronting opposition demands for accountability.

Voters are also facing a wide range of other contentious issues, including the war, national security, relations with the United States, compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews, the confrontation with Iran, political stability and the bitter dispute over judicial reforms.

The political tensions come as Israel's National Security Council has recently warned of a growing threat to Israelis abroad and Jews around the world, particularly as the third anniversary of the Oct. 7 attack approaches.

Nizar Nazzal, an expert on Israeli affairs, said the attack has several implications for the upcoming election and is deeply embedded in the campaign and in the way Israeli voters are approaching the ballot.

For Netanyahu, Oct. 7 poses a direct political threat because of the possibility that he could fail to secure enough support to form a new government after the Knesset election, Nazzal said. That could have a significant impact on the political balance emerging from the vote.

Election carries "complex" security dimension

The election, scheduled for Oct. 27, will not be an ordinary political contest, Nazzal told Erem News, because it has a complex and intertwined security dimension that could produce historically significant consequences.

He said no outcome could be ruled out, including violence between Netanyahu's supporters and the opposition.

Israel is experiencing intense political polarization, Nazzal said, leaving little room for neutrality as voters have largely made up their minds should the election go ahead.

At the same time, he said, Netanyahu is looking for any opportunity or emergency that could enable him to postpone the vote, potentially through a new security incident or by opening a confrontation that could be presented as evidence that Israel's very existence is under threat.

Nazzal said Netanyahu considers the country's emerging political elites to be temporary rather than historic figures, while viewing himself as one of the leaders responsible for safeguarding Israel's existence.