Lebanon’s middle class, long considered the backbone of the country’s social and economic structure, has been devastated by years of successive crises, raising urgent questions about the nation’s path to recovery. Once a stable and productive segment of society, the middle class included employees and those with fixed incomes, serving as a “safety valve” against poverty and a key indicator of social stability and growth. Today, its base has shrunk to unprecedented levels.

According to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA), extreme poverty in Lebanon has soared to nearly 40%, overall poverty exceeds 80%, and multidimensional poverty, which takes into account social, health, and educational indicators, surpasses 82%. Meanwhile, the country’s wealthiest citizens have increased their fortunes during the crisis, further deepening social divides and entrenching structural inequality.

In 2019, official figures reflected the following distribution: extreme poverty 8%, poverty 19.8%, lower middle class 45.6%, upper middle class 11.5%, and wealthy 15%.

Following the crisis, particularly after 2021, these figures changed dramatically. UNESCWA reports show extreme poverty near 40%, overall poverty above 80%, and multidimensional poverty exceeding 82%.

Against this backdrop, experts say that rebuilding the middle class is essential to reviving the Lebanese economy. Without restoring this group’s central role, neither recovery nor stability is likely, as the middle class has historically formed the heart and engine of Lebanese society.

In remarks to Nidaa Al-Watan newspaper, Jassem Ajaka, an economics professor at the Lebanese University, identifies three critical dimensions of the middle class: social, economic, and financial.

Social dimension: The middle class is a working, productive segment that includes employees and those with fixed incomes. Its members generally avoid extreme poverty and can meet basic needs. The size and growth of the middle class are used by the United Nations as indicators of sustainable development and societal well-being, often serving as a measure of social health.

Economic dimension: The middle class drives economic activity as the largest consumer segment, creating domestic demand that fuels growth and contributes to gross domestic product through both consumption and labor. It also provides the primary source of skilled labor for businesses, making it a cornerstone for the continuity of economic activity.

Financial dimension: The middle class is the largest contributor to state tax revenues, as taxes are mainly levied on the most regular economic activity, typically associated with this group. A decline in the middle class directly affects public finances, reducing tax revenues and constraining government capacity.

Ajaka highlighted the role of public sector wages, saying that “since the state is one of the largest employers in Lebanon, salary increases provided limited relief to public sector employees.” However, he noted that the improvement was modest due to a lack of precise data. The expansion of cash-based economic activity since 2022 and increases in social support partially eased poverty, but without any significant or sustainable improvement in living standards.

Meanwhile, some upper-middle-class groups moved into the wealthy category, taking advantage of the crisis. This shift has further intensified inequality and widened the gap between social strata.

Ajaka emphasizes that restoring Lebanon’s middle class must be the starting point for economic revival. He advocates two parallel tracks:

1. Raising and strengthening private sector wages to restore purchasing power and gradually return employees to a standard of living consistent with middle-class norms.

2. Implementing genuine economic reforms to create job opportunities in the private sector. A healthy economy depends on a strong private sector rather than expanding state employment. These reforms should improve the business environment, support production, enhance transparency, and provide investment incentives.