Southern Lebanon risks facing a dangerous security vacuum and a prolonged Israeli occupation as the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) prepares to withdraw, with no international agreement in sight on a replacement force or monitoring mechanism, a senior international source told Annahar.

The source warned that the absence of an international presence could pave the way for Israel to establish an expanded buffer zone unilaterally, potentially turning the current military separation on the ground into what amounts to the de facto annexation of Lebanese territory under the pretext of protecting its northern border.

UNIFIL is expected to begin withdrawing in early January, but no decision has been made on deploying a multinational force or international observer mission to take over some of its responsibilities. Unless an initiative emerges before the end of December, Lebanon could face a serious security and diplomatic vacuum, the source said.

The source also warned that the situation could bring the Israeli and Lebanese armies closer to a direct confrontation.

US opposes international replacement force

Washington's position is a central obstacle to efforts to maintain an international presence in southern Lebanon, according to the source.

The US administration is pushing for UNIFIL's mission to end and has so far opposed replacing it with another international force. Instead, Washington wants the Lebanese state to assume sole responsibility for security and any confrontation with Israel, without the backing of an international force, on the grounds that Israel can ensure security in the area itself.

The source said the US military presence in Lebanon would remain at its current level, consisting, according to the information available to the source, of two American military personnel participating in the ceasefire monitoring mechanism known as the "mechanism."

Washington has no plans to deploy additional US forces on Lebanese soil, a position US Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa had previously conveyed to diplomats, the source added.

France, one of the leading advocates of maintaining an international role in southern Lebanon, has also failed to take effective action at the UN Security Council to develop an alternative arrangement.

The source attributed Paris's inaction to repeated frustration with Lebanese leaders, who have not submitted a clear, formal request for a replacement international monitoring force after UNIFIL's departure.

President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have so far failed to formulate a clear and specific Lebanese position amid direct US pressure, leaving France without an official initiative from Beirut on which to base diplomatic efforts, the source said.

Multinational force proposal put on hold

France and Italy had previously explored the possibility of establishing a multinational force to assume some of UNIFIL's monitoring and accompanying responsibilities after its withdrawal.

The proposal has effectively been shelved, however, after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni stepped back from a political commitment to send troops to Lebanon. The decision came amid approaching domestic electoral deadlines and concerns over the military and diplomatic risks an Italian contingent could face, according to the source.

One of the most serious consequences of the anticipated vacuum would concern the Blue Line, established by the United Nations in 2000 to verify Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon, the source warned.

Without international observers, independent monitoring of violations and military movements would be weakened. The absence of UNIFIL could also undermine the tripartite coordination and verification arrangements that brought the Lebanese and Israeli armies together under the UN force's auspices.

The source also pointed to what it described as a "new Israeli doctrine for the buffer zone," under which Israel could exploit the security vacuum between the Yellow Line and the Blue Line to establish a permanent forward security zone inside Lebanese territory.

There are concerns that such an arrangement could gradually become a lasting occupation, with Israel exercising military control over the area without an international body present to monitor its movements or independently document violations.

The source warned that the combination of a lack of Lebanese initiative, limited French diplomatic action and Washington's rejection of any international replacement force could leave southern Lebanon facing a new and potentially irreversible reality.

The danger, the source concluded, extends beyond the security vacuum that UNIFIL's withdrawal would create to the prospect of a prolonged Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory that could prove difficult to reverse through diplomatic means.