Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc won 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, falling well short of the 61 needed for a parliamentary majority, according to final vote counts released by election officials on Thursday.

The bloc backing his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, secured 48 seats in a closely contested election, leaving neither camp with a clear path to forming a government.

Netanyahu’s coalition has dropped from the 64 seats it held when it took office to 53, far below the 68 seats it controlled at its peak in the previous parliament. The results leave the longtime prime minister in office as caretaker leader, facing an opposition-dominated parliament determined to remove him from power.

The vote count is complete, but the results must still be formally certified and submitted to President Isaac Herzog next Wednesday. Herzog will then consult with party leaders before asking the candidate he believes has the best chance of securing a governing majority to form a government.

The election also produced a historic breakthrough for parties representing Israel’s Arab minority, which won a combined 19 seats. Palestinians holding Israeli citizenship turned out in record numbers on Tuesday, many hoping to unseat Netanyahu and the far-right members of his coalition, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

The gains have placed Arab parties in a potentially decisive position in the negotiations over Israel’s next government, bringing renewed attention to the political realities facing Palestinian citizens of Israel.

Both Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc and Eisenkot’s camp have ruled out forming a government with the two main Arab parties, Ra’am and the Joint List. However, their strong showing could make their support crucial to any attempt to secure a parliamentary majority.

Ahead of the election, Netanyahu and other members of his coalition amplified allegations of foreign interference, referring Arab parties to Israel’s domestic security agency, the Shin Bet, for investigation over claims of Qatari involvement.

Qatar denied the allegations. Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas said his party had “no connection” to such conduct and called for a full investigation. He also accused Netanyahu of waging a campaign of incitement and seeking to delegitimize Arab citizens.

Dean Livne, acting director general of Israel’s Central Elections Committee, said in a letter to a member of parliament that there was “no basis for allegations of systematic violations of electoral integrity.”

Despite the refusal of Netanyahu and Eisenkot to cooperate with the Arab parties, Yair Golan, leader of the smaller left-wing Democrats party, called for a government formed in partnership with them.

“We must no longer accept Netanyahu’s racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes,” Golan wrote on X on Wednesday.

Most Palestinians with Israeli citizenship are descendants of those who remained within the territory that became Israel during the 1948 war surrounding the country’s establishment. Hundreds of thousands of others fled or were expelled from their homes during the conflict.

Four possible scenarios for Israel’s next government

With no clear winner and neither leading bloc holding a majority, Israel faces weeks of potentially difficult coalition negotiations. Several scenarios could determine the country’s political future.

Another election

Once the final results are formally published next week, Herzog will begin consultations with representatives of the parties elected to the Knesset. He will then nominate the candidate he considers most likely to form a government.

If that candidate fails, another can be given the opportunity. Should that attempt also fail, the Knesset itself can nominate a candidate. The process is subject to a deadline of approximately 100 days. If no one succeeds in forming a government within that period, another election would be held.

Herzog said on Wednesday that every effort should be made to avoid another vote, urging political parties to approach their consultations with him with an open mind.

A unity government

Likud, which emerged as the largest party in the Knesset, could seek to form a broad coalition with centrist and right-wing opposition parties, including Eisenkot’s Yashar, Avigdor Lieberman’s Israel Our Home and Naftali Bennett’s Together faction.

Such an alliance would command 66 seats, giving it a majority in the 120-member parliament.

For now, however, the prospect appears remote. Netanyahu would likely have to abandon his traditional partners among the far-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, while the opposition parties would be forced to break their central campaign pledge to remove him from office.

Still, a unity government could emerge as a last resort if neither side manages to secure a majority after prolonged negotiations. Renewed fighting with Iran or other regional actors could also push rival political camps toward an agreement.

An Eisenkot-led minority government

If Herzog first asks Eisenkot to form a government, he could seek to build an alliance with his natural partners: Bennett’s Together faction, the Democrats and Israel Our Home.

The proposed government could rely on support from the two main Arab parties, Ra’am and the Joint List, without necessarily including them as formal coalition members.

Eisenkot’s camp has 48 seats, while the two Arab parties hold a combined 19. Together, they could provide the 67 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.

Such an arrangement would nevertheless face significant political obstacles. Eisenkot would have to reverse his campaign pledge not to form a government with the Arab parties or rely on their support. That could prove difficult to sell to many Israelis, whose attitudes toward the country’s Arab minority have hardened further since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack.

Netanyahu has made opposition to Arab-party support a central theme of his campaign, seeking to delegitimize their growing political influence. So far, the Democrats, a center-left party, are the only group to have publicly called for their inclusion in a governing coalition.

Both Ra’am and the Joint List have signaled their readiness to cooperate with Eisenkot’s camp.

Ra’am has previously participated in a governing coalition, joining Bennett’s government in 2021. It was the first time an independent Arab party had entered an Israeli coalition. That government collapsed after 18 months.

Netanyahu seeks to rebuild a right-wing majority

Despite the setback, Netanyahu could still try to assemble a parliamentary majority by persuading lawmakers from opposition parties to defect and join his bloc.

Israel’s longest-serving prime minister is widely regarded as a highly skilled political operator, and he has previously managed to weaken rival coalitions by drawing members of their parties to his side.

He used a similar strategy ahead of the 2022 election, which he won. At the time, however, the coalition he was seeking to topple held a much narrower majority, meaning he needed fewer defections to undermine it.

With his bloc now reduced to 53 seats, Netanyahu would face a more difficult task in securing the numbers needed to remain in power. Nevertheless, the election result leaves open the possibility that he could exploit divisions within the opposition to put together another right-wing government.