Hezbollah is increasingly concerned that the battle over the strategic Ali al-Taher heights in southern Lebanon could mark the beginning, rather than the end, of a broader Israeli operation aimed at reaching the group’s deeper military positions north of the Litani River, according to Lebanese military assessments.

The concerns center on the possibility that Israel could seek to move beyond Ali al-Taher toward the Rayhan heights, Iqlim al-Tuffah and the western Bekaa, potentially using Mount Hermon as an eastern flanking route rather than attempting a more difficult advance from the south.

A Lebanese military source told Erem News that Israeli activity around Mount Hermon had intensified in recent weeks, including the construction of military roads and the linking of military positions, alongside exercises and movements by special forces.

The developments have raised fears that Israel could use its positions on the mountain to establish an operational axis toward the western Bekaa, allowing it to put pressure on Hezbollah’s military infrastructure from an unexpected direction.

Publicly available reports have also pointed to Israel establishing around 10 observation points and positions on Mount Hermon, equipped with cameras and thermal-imaging systems, as well as building military roads along the mountain’s slopes and connecting the new positions.

But the Lebanese source said the main concern for Hezbollah was not Israel’s activity inside Syria itself, but the military options that those positions and roads could eventually create on the Lebanese battlefield.

Beyond Ali al-Taher

According to the source, Hezbollah’s military leadership is now considering the possibility that Ali al-Taher may be only the first stage of an Israeli campaign.

Israel has increasingly focused on three interconnected areas — Iqlim al-Tuffah, the Rayhan heights and the western Bekaa — according to Lebanese assessments.

Recent reports have suggested that military planning is already considering the possibility of operations moving from Ali al-Taher toward the heights of Iqlim al-Tuffah and Rayhan and ultimately toward the southern approaches of the western Bekaa.

Ali al-Taher is strategically important because it overlooks Nabatiyeh, Kfar Tebnit and several routes leading toward Iqlim al-Tuffah and Rayhan. Control of the heights could give Israel a stronger vantage point over movements deeper inside southern Lebanon and potentially provide a launch point for putting pressure on Hezbollah positions farther north.

That would make the destruction or capture of the military complex beneath Ali al-Taher more than the elimination of a single facility. It could amount to breaking through the southern gateway of a much deeper defensive belt.

A difficult mountain battlefield

Israel is believed to regard the Rayhan and Iqlim al-Tuffah areas as containing major Hezbollah military infrastructure, the Lebanese military source said.

The terrain presents a formidable challenge. Parts of the mountainous region rise to around 1,200 meters, making any ground operation there significantly different from Israeli operations conducted along the border.

Israel also believes the Lebanese army is unlikely to move against Hezbollah facilities in the area in the foreseeable future, according to the source, potentially creating an opportunity for Israeli forces to continue northward and attempt to dismantle the infrastructure.

A direct advance, however, would be extremely costly.

Moving from the Khardali area and the outskirts of Nabatiyeh toward Iqlim al-Tuffah and Rayhan would require Israeli troops and armored vehicles to cross routes that Hezbollah could monitor and target. The rugged terrain would also provide defenders with a substantial tactical advantage.

The area has long been considered important to Israeli military planners. Assessments have pointed to Hezbollah infrastructure north of Nabatiyeh, while recent analyses have described Iqlim al-Tuffah as one of the group's key deep military strongholds.

From that perspective, control of Ali al-Taher could provide Israel with an opening to exert pressure on those positions.

The eastern flank

The scenario that worries Hezbollah most, however, is an Israeli attempt to bypass the southern approach altogether.

Instead of committing large forces from the south toward Nabatiyeh and then pushing into the mountains, Israel could seek to establish a flanking route from Mount Hermon toward the western Bekaa, according to the Lebanese source.

The strategy would take advantage of the military roads Israel is reportedly constructing and its ability to observe the surrounding area from elevated positions.

Using Mount Hermon to exert pressure on the Lebanese front would not be entirely unprecedented.

In March, Israeli forces launched an operation from the Syrian side of Mount Hermon toward the Shebaa Farms, demonstrating how the area could potentially be used to open routes that circumvent traditional lines of confrontation.

At the time, military assessments also suggested Israel was seeking to put pressure on the road linking southern Lebanon with the western Bekaa and make movement and resupply between the two areas more difficult.

The potential advantage of such a maneuver would be to force Hezbollah to defend a much wider area.

Israel could maintain pressure around Ali al-Taher and Iqlim al-Tuffah while simultaneously threatening the group from the east, forcing it to distribute its forces across a front stretching from Nabatiyeh and Rayhan to the western Bekaa.

That would make it harder for Hezbollah to concentrate its defenses along a single expected axis of attack.

U.S. backing could be crucial

The Lebanese source cautioned, however, that an operation of this scale would require political backing from Washington.

Any Israeli advance beyond Ali al-Taher into areas north of the Litani would effectively undermine the existing partial ceasefire and risk triggering a broader confrontation whose boundaries could become difficult to control.

The issue is therefore not only a question of military capability but also of political authorization and the regional consequences of expanding the battlefield.

'A change in the calculations of the battle'

Military and strategic affairs expert Mohammad Youssef al-Nour said the significance of Israel's activity around Mount Hermon should not be measured simply by the number of roads or positions being built.

The more important question, he said, is what operational options those preparations could provide Israel in the future.

“Entering Iqlim al-Tuffah and Rayhan from the southern axis would put Israeli forces up against difficult terrain and areas that Hezbollah can monitor and where it can prepare defenses in advance,” al-Nour told Erem News.

“Therefore, opening a parallel axis from the direction of Mount Hermon and the western Bekaa, even if it is used to apply pressure or divert forces rather than for a full-scale invasion, could change the calculations of the battle.”

For Hezbollah, the central danger would be being forced to fight in several directions simultaneously, he said.

“The danger for Hezbollah is that it would be forced to defend more than one direction at the same time and lose the advantage of knowing the axis of attack in advance,” al-Nour said.

He argued that an Israeli move from Ali al-Taher toward Rayhan and Iqlim al-Tuffah would signal a fundamental shift in the nature of the campaign.

Israel would no longer be focused primarily on the border area, but would be testing whether it could penetrate and dismantle Hezbollah's deeper military infrastructure north of the Litani.

Under that scenario, al-Nour said, the battle for Ali al-Taher could prove to be only the opening phase of a far larger confrontation.