Israel is likely to launch a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear program in the coming months, a move that could delay Tehran’s progress by weeks or months but significantly heighten tensions across the Middle East, according to U.S. intelligence assessments cited by The Washington Post.

The warnings of a potential Israeli operation are detailed in multiple intelligence reports spanning the final months of the Biden administration and the early days of the Trump presidency. The most comprehensive analysis, issued in early January by the intelligence directorate of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defense Intelligence Agency, points to an Israeli strike on Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities within the first half of 2025.

U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence told The Washington Post that the assessment is based on Israel’s strategic planning following its October airstrike on Iran, which weakened Tehran’s air defenses and left key nuclear sites vulnerable to further attacks. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity due to the classified nature of the information.

The Israeli government, CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency, and Office of the Director of National Intelligence have declined to comment. White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes reiterated President Donald Trump’s position, stating: “He will not permit Iran to get a nuclear weapon. While he prefers a diplomatic resolution, he will not wait indefinitely if Iran isn’t willing to negotiate.”

According to the military intelligence report, Israel is considering two potential strike options. The first, a standoff strike, would involve Israeli aircraft launching air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs) from outside Iranian airspace. The second, a more direct stand-in attack, would require Israeli fighter jets to enter Iranian airspace and deploy BLU-109 bunker buster bombs near nuclear sites. Last week, the Trump administration approved the sale of guidance kits for these bunker busters and formally notified Congress of the decision.

Any Israeli strike would require U.S. support in aerial refueling, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, underscoring Washington’s leverage over Israel’s military actions. Despite the potential disruption to Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. intelligence suggests that an attack would, at best, set back Tehran’s efforts by a few months. Officials warn it could also push Iran to accelerate uranium enrichment to weapons-grade levels, a longstanding red line for both Washington and Tel Aviv.

While the Wall Street Journal recently reported that Israel is considering a strike on Iran this year, the newly surfaced details regarding the six-month timeframe and operational scenarios had not been previously disclosed.

Some Israeli officials dispute U.S. assessments of a strike’s effectiveness, arguing that it could inflict greater damage on Iran’s nuclear capabilities than American analysts predict.

“That was a difference between our intelligence and their assessment,” a former U.S. official said.

The revelations come amid an internal debate within the Trump administration over the appropriate use of military force in the Middle East. The administration includes a mix of foreign policy hawks, such as National Security Adviser Michael Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, alongside advocates of military restraint, including Vice President JD Vance and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Others, like Pentagon official Elbridge Colby, emphasize reorienting U.S. military priorities toward countering China in East Asia.

It remains unclear whether Trump would endorse an Israeli strike on Iran. By the end of the Biden administration, U.S. intelligence had not concluded that Iran was actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, and American officials had not committed to supporting an Israeli operation. Following Trump’s inauguration, a Defense Intelligence Agency report in late January reiterated Israel’s consideration of a strike but provided fewer specifics. A similar assessment was included in an October report by the National Intelligence Council, according to sources familiar with the intelligence.