An air war is coming against Iran—and though its success in the near-term seems assured, it could have serious, even destructive, unintended effects for the wider region and the United States. 

If President Donald Trump and his administration are to be believed, the mullahs governing the Islamic Republic of Iran have roughly two months of relative peace left before the United States and Israel blitz them from the air.

A range of sources—notably Israeli military analysts speaking with reporters for Israel’s venerable Channel 14—insist that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) could be ready to attack key Iranian nuclear weapons facilities, such as the Fordow Uranium Enrichment facility, within a week.

Thanks to their new air corridor cutting across Syria, the IAF now has a clear angle of attack on Iran. And the IAF has already purportedly demonstrated that their F-35I “Adir” fifth-generation warplanes can attack the Russian-made S-300 air defense systems that Iran deploys around their sensitive military sites. 

The introduction of possibly seven (or more) of America’s nineteen B-2 long-range stealth bombers to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean now means that Israel has re-strike capacity, courtesy of the United States Air Force.

Understanding Iranian Military Capabilities 

Of course, the Iranians are not the same as other foes the Americans have tussled with in the Middle East. Their forces are better equipped and have years of experience fighting asymmetrical wars throughout the region. What’s more, the Russians are plying the Iranians with advanced air defense systems, not only the aging S-300 but also possibly the S-400. 

And while the Su-35 “Flanker” warplane might not be as good as Israel’s F-35I, the recent delivery of these jets to Iran will enhance their capabilities. Moreover, the interest expressed by Tehran in acquiring Russia’s fifth-generation Su-57 “Felon” could be a real game changer for Iranian air defenses, if Tehran and Moscow follow through on such a proposal. 

In the meantime, however, it is clear that the United States and Israel no longer favor negotiations with Iran. The recent letter that President Donald J. Trump had hand-delivered by his Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, to the Iranians was not a letter of peace. That letter, as explained by the Ayatollah, was full of bluster and threats, followed by a demand for denuclearization. This is not how negotiations begin. 

Rather than a negotiated settlement, the likelihood is far greater that a sustained air campaign conducted by Israel and the United States is set to take place in the imminent future. 

Iran’s air defenses, while diverse and layered, face significant challenges against a combined Israeli and U.S. air campaign due to the presence of advanced stealth, electronic warfare (EW), and precision-strike capabilities demonstrated by both the U.S. and Israeli air forces. Iran’s mixture of Soviet-era equipment, modern Russian exports, and indigenously developed defenses will complicate the success of a combined US and Israeli airstrike. But these systems are unlikely to stymie such an assault.

Indeed, given the presence of F-35s, F-22s, F-15s, F-16s, and B-2 Spirit bombers, there is only a 20 percent chance, at best, that the Iranians will be able to prevent the U.S. and Israelis from successfully destroying targeted nuclear facilities and other key military assets. 

Iranian defenses will certainly inflict losses or delay Israeli and US operations, but the stealth technology employed by Iran’s enemies and their superior EW capabilities will ensure that the Iranian air defenses do not pose significant enough threats to the combined Israeli and U.S. air forces that it stops the Israelis and Americans from destroying their intended targets.

The Consequences of an Air War against Iran

The greater concern than the Iranian air defense network will be Iranian retaliation against U.S. targets throughout the region. There is also the real chance that Iran’s rogue proxy groups around the world could launch waves of terrorism directed against the United States, Europe, and Israel.

Furthermore, the Iranian military has already indicated its willingness and deep preparations for closing the Strait of Hormuz, one of seven global oil chokepoints which borders Iran itself. Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, even for a short time, would devastate the global economy by spiking the global price of energy. Iran produces about four percent of the global supply of oil; if the United States and Israel were to attack its oil infrastructure in their strikes, this would further increase prices. 

The disruption that an air war against Iran would cause could send global prices as high as $150 a barrel (or higher). Even a $5 increase in oil prices equates to an annualized “tax” of about $183 billion on global consumers, with a larger spike amplifying this effect. 

For the United States, a jump to $150 per barrel could add 3.5-4 percent to overall inflation. 

An air war would likely trigger a flight to safety in global financial markets. U.S. equity markets could drop sharply as investors predict uncertainty and higher energy costs, with sectors like airlines, retail, and logistics likely the hardest hit. 

At the same time, gold and U.S. Treasuries would rally, with gold possibly exceeding $3,500 per ounce and 10-year Treasury yields dropping as investors seek stability.

A sustained air war against Iran conducted jointly by Israel and the United States would likely succeed in degrading Iranian nuclear capabilities. But such a campaign would be fraught with challenges and unintended consequences.

Is Iran on the Brink of Collapse?

The Iranian regime is brittle. Decimating Iranian nuclear facilities and showing their defenses to be little more than bluster could eventuate in a real regime change. But the regime, while weak, is not likely to go quietly into that good night. Instability and balkanization in Iran would occur. Israel has expressed hope for the Shāh’s grandson to return to Iran and restore the monarchy there. Yet, it remains to be seen how much real support that planned regime change has with the people of Iran. Here is where those unintended consequences come into play. 

For Israel, specifically the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, still smarting over the failure to adequately protect Israel on October 7, 2023, from Iranian-backed Hamas terrorists, now is the time to strike Iran. But the United States under Trump appears more interested in stopping the wider regional destabilization that Iran has fostered for the last several decades.

Of course, the US can stop Iranian malfeasance at any time. It remains a question as to why now is the moment that the Trump administration is choosing to do this…other than to lend critical aid to an ally, such as Israel, that is choosing to strike Iran now.

Nevertheless, an air war is coming against Iran—and though its success in the near-term seems assured, it could have serious, even destructive, unintended effects for the wider region and the United States.