The fate of dozens of Hezbollah fighters and Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers trapped in an underground complex beneath the strategic Ali al-Taher heights in southern Lebanon has emerged as one of the most sensitive unresolved battles of the war, with Israel deliberately holding back from a final assault for fear that killing the men could trigger a wider confrontation with Iran.

According to Erem News, field information indicates that between 20 and 40 Hezbollah fighters remain trapped inside the tunnel network, accompanied by dozens of officers and advisers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Israeli forces have established control over most of the access routes leading to the complex and maintain extensive fire and intelligence surveillance over its entrances. Yet despite having the military capability to attempt to clear the tunnels, Israel has opted for what officials describe as a strategy of siege and “operational patience,” while secret negotiations seek a way to end the standoff.

The presence of Iranian officers inside the complex is the central factor behind the cautious approach.

The calculations surrounding the battle extend well beyond Ali al-Taher itself. A large-scale Israeli assault that killed Iranian personnel could prompt Tehran to retaliate directly against Israel, potentially setting off a chain reaction involving U.S. forces and energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

For now, all sides appear determined to avoid such an escalation.

Dozens of Iranian officers inside the tunnels

The number of people still trapped underground cannot be established with certainty because some Hezbollah fighters and Iranian personnel reportedly escaped before the Israeli encirclement was fully completed around 10 weeks ago.

Field sources nevertheless estimate that between 20 and 40 Hezbollah members remain inside the complex, along with dozens of IRGC officers.

The Iranian personnel are believed to be officers who arrived in Lebanon during the past year and were assigned to the headquarters of Hezbollah’s field command for the area north of the Litani River.

Their presence has transformed what might otherwise have been a localized battle into a potentially dangerous confrontation involving Iran directly.

The complex itself is located beneath the Ali al-Taher heights, a roughly 600-meter-high ridge west of Nabatiyeh. The area forms part of Hezbollah’s so-called Badr Operational Unit, which extends between the Litani River to the south and the Zahrani River to the north.

The ridge was selected by Hezbollah as a command center and position for heavy weapons because of its commanding view over the routes leading toward Nabatiyeh. Its proximity to the Israeli border also gave the group the ability to coordinate attacks and obstruct an Israeli ground advance toward the north.

Israel caught Hezbollah off guard

Israel’s operation to seize the area was reportedly based on detailed intelligence about the underground command complex.

Units from the Israeli military’s 36th Division moved to control the outskirts of Nabatiyeh and the Ali al-Taher heights while Israeli forces were simultaneously conducting operations around Beaufort Castle to the south.

The operation appears to have caught Hezbollah fighters by surprise.

According to the information available, members of Israel’s Egoz and Yahalom units appeared around tunnel entrances and the narrow streets and access routes leading to the underground complex, effectively surrounding those inside.

Since then, Hezbollah fighters and Iranian officers have made repeated attempts to escape through the tunnels or to receive supplies and reinforcements from villages around the Nabatiyeh plateau.

The fighting has been costly.

Five Israeli officers and soldiers have been killed and 21 wounded in clashes around the site, while more than 20 Hezbollah members have been killed, according to the field information.

Hezbollah has also claimed that it recently succeeded in getting water and food into the besieged complex through newly opened entrances and by using drones.

But despite those efforts, the underground facility remains tightly surrounded.

Why Israel has not stormed the complex

Israeli forces are believed to possess the tactics and technology needed to attempt to clear the tunnels, drawing on methods developed during fighting in Gaza and southern Lebanon.

Yet the Israeli military has so far refrained from using its most aggressive tunnel-clearing methods.

The reason, according to the Israeli assessment described in the reporting, is the potential cost of a final assault.

Such an operation could result in dozens of bodies being recovered from the tunnels, including Iranian IRGC officers. A mass casualty event involving Iranian personnel could leave Tehran under intense pressure to make good on its threats against Israel and the United States.

Iranian military and security officials have repeatedly described Hezbollah as a strategically vital component of Iran’s regional position. The direct presence of IRGC officers alongside Hezbollah fighters makes the situation particularly sensitive.

An Israeli assault resulting in significant Iranian casualties could therefore prompt Tehran to launch missiles and drones at Israel.

Israel would almost certainly respond against targets inside Iran, potentially transforming the battle beneath a southern Lebanese ridge into a much broader regional confrontation.

That could then extend toward the Gulf, putting U.S. military bases and energy facilities at risk.

A chain reaction nobody wants

The prospect of such a chain reaction is a major reason the battle has moved slowly.

Israel’s government, facing elections, has little interest in exposing its population to another destructive confrontation with Iran, particularly one that would consume large quantities of ammunition and require extensive air-force operations.

Trump’s administration also has an interest in preventing a new escalation.

The U.S. president is approaching midterm elections that could cost Republicans their congressional majority, while Washington is already engaged in efforts to contain Iran through economic pressure. U.S. Central Command has also succeeded in escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

A new war with Iran would therefore carry significant military and political costs for Washington.

Lebanon’s government faces a different dilemma.

According to the Israeli assessment, Beirut fears that a bloody defeat for Hezbollah at Ali al-Taher could damage the government’s credibility among the country’s Shiite community and weaken its position as a Lebanese party capable of pressing Israel to withdraw.

The result is a situation in which the military option exists, but the political and regional consequences of using it could be far greater than the immediate battlefield gains.

Israel looks to Rafah

The Israeli military is reportedly drawing on its experience in the battle over the tunnel network in Rafah, in southern Gaza.

There, Israeli forces imposed a prolonged siege rather than immediately attempting to eliminate everyone trapped underground. The operation ultimately ended with most of those inside being killed and the remainder surrendering.

According to information reported by Yedioth Ahronoth, senior Israeli officers and military officials have said in closed-door discussions that they would have no objection to the Ali al-Taher confrontation ending in a similar manner.

That could mean maintaining the siege for as long as necessary, even if Israeli forces have to absorb occasional attacks by explosive-laden drones.

The strategy is based on the belief that time may achieve what a direct assault could accomplish at a much higher regional cost.

By keeping the complex surrounded, Israel can gradually increase pressure on those inside while avoiding an immediate operation that could kill Iranian officers and force Tehran to respond.

Hezbollah turns to diplomacy

For Hezbollah, the passage of time is becoming increasingly difficult.

The group is pressing the Lebanese government to seek help from international actors as the siege continues, according to the information available.

The issue has become part of direct and indirect negotiations taking place under U.S. auspices.

Beirut has put forward a proposal based on simultaneous withdrawals by Israel and Hezbollah. Under the proposed arrangement, the Lebanese Armed Forces would take control of the Ali al-Taher heights and dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure both above and below ground.

The formula would provide a potential exit for all sides: Israel could withdraw without having to launch a costly final assault, Hezbollah could avoid a mass-casualty defeat and the Lebanese state could assume control of the strategically important area.

But the negotiations remain blocked.

The weapons question

The main obstacle is Hezbollah’s insistence that any withdrawal arrangement concerning its weapons must be structured so that the group does not appear to have surrendered.

That condition has prevented the negotiations from producing a breakthrough.

Israel, meanwhile, maintains fire and intelligence control over the entrances and roads leading to the underground complex.

Lebanese reports say Israeli forces have also penetrated parts of the tunnel network and are moving closer to the positions where the trapped fighters and Iranian officers are believed to be located.

The situation has consequently reached a delicate point.

A military assault could end the siege but risk triggering an Iranian response. A prolonged siege could eventually force those underground to surrender, but Hezbollah is racing against time and seeking a diplomatic escape route. And a negotiated withdrawal remains possible only if the parties can resolve the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons without turning the arrangement into an apparent capitulation.