France is maintaining close oversight of Lebanon, even during holiday periods, amid concerns over the country’s security and political stability. French officials say the situation in Lebanon is monitored daily, with any escalation seen as having potential repercussions beyond its borders.

“Lebanon is not a seasonal issue for us. It is present daily, even when Paris appears focused on other matters. Both at the Élysée and in the Foreign Ministry, there is a conviction that any security development in Lebanon will have repercussions beyond its borders," a French official told Al-Modon.

France’s approach has evolved beyond managing the Lebanese crisis toward actively preventing escalation.

“There is a growing sense in Paris that Lebanon stands on the edge of a very dangerous phase, where security and politics, domestic and regional factors, are deeply intertwined,” the source said.

Paris considers any security deterioration, particularly in southern Lebanon, a “red line” for both the country and regional stability.

“Any large-scale incident south or north of the Litani River, or across Lebanon, could trigger a trajectory no one could control. That is why our focus is on prevention, not reaction,” the source added.

Speaking about the Lebanese army, the source grew more direct.

“Frankly, the army is the last pillar of the State. If the army falls, the State falls. This is not a media statement; it reflects the conclusions of numerous internal and external discussions.”

On the planned international conference to support the army, the French source noted that while the principle is agreed upon, details and objectives are still being finalized. Paris, like other countries assisting Lebanon, is particularly concerned about sustaining the army’s capacity to operate across the country from south to north, given limited resources and multiple internal challenges.

France is also closely monitoring the uncertain future of UNIFIL on the Lebanese-Israeli border. Questions remain not only about whether UNIFIL continues or is replaced by another international force, but also about the mandate and operational framework of any new deployment. French officials are reportedly exploring multiple options for a post-UNIFIL phase and are prepared to play a central role if alternative arrangements are implemented.

The French source framed Lebanon as a strategic element in a broader Eastern Mediterranean context.

“Lebanon is not a detail. It is part of the energy and influence equation in the region. Anyone who thinks France acts out of emotion misreads the situation. France sees itself, alongside other European nations, racing against time and opportunity.”

Paris recognizes the narrow margins, given the advanced American role in Lebanese politics and security, including energy investments and infrastructure. The alternative to proactive engagement, the source said, would risk ceding influence and presence in a volatile region where political and geographic boundaries are increasingly shaped by conflict and competition for power.