FAO: Major Drop in Global Food Prices in July, but Future Supply Worries Persist

Global food prices dropped significantly in July, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline since hitting record highs earlier this year from the war in Ukraine.

The Food and Agriculture Organization launched its Food Price Index on Friday which measures the monthly change in international prices of five key food commodities: cereals, dairy products, meat, vegetable oil, and sugar.

The index averaged at 140.0 points in July, down 8.6 percent from June.

The FAO added that cereal and vegetable oil prices recorded double-digital percentage drops which may have been partly brought on by the UN-brokered deal on Ukrainian grain exports.

“The decline in food commodity prices from very high levels is welcome, especially when seen from a food access viewpoint; however, many uncertainties remain, including high fertilizer prices that can impact future production prospects and farmers’ livelihoods, a bleak global economic outlook, and currency movements, all of which pose serious strains for global food security,” FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said.

In July, the FAO’s Vegetable Oil Price Index decreased by 19.2 percent from June, marking a 10-month low.

International quotations for all oil types dropped, with palm oil prices declining due to prospects of ample export availabilities out of Indonesia, those of rapeseed oil responding to expectations of sufficient new crop supplies, and soy oil prices down due to protracted sluggish demand, the agency said.

In addition, Sunflower oil prices also fell markedly amid subdued global import demand despite continued logistical uncertainties in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices were also pushed down by lower crude oil prices.

The Cereal Price Index fell by 11.5 percent in July, while remaining 16.6 percent above its July 2021 value.

Prices of all cereals considered in the index fell due to wheat. Throughout the month, global wheat prices dropped by around 14.5 percent, in part due to the Russia-Ukraine deal on grain exports from key Black Sea ports and seasonal availability from ongoing harvests in the northern hemisphere.

The agency’s Sugar Price Index fell by 3.8 percent since June amid concerns over demand prospects due to expectations of a further global economic slowdown and lower ethanol prices which resulted in more sugar production in Brazil throughout the month.

The Dairy Price Index was down 2.5 percent from June, but is still around 25.4 percent above its value in July 2021.

The Meat Price Index recorded the lowest decline of all, with a price reduction of 0.5 percent since June due to weakening import demand for bovine, ovine, and pig meats, the agency said. However, poultry meat prices reached an all-time high.