Europe Swings to the Right — Led by France

Europe’s center of political gravity is veering to the right.

The European People’s Party (EPP) scored a clear victory in Sunday’s European Parliament election, tightening its grip on the chamber even as far-right groups made major gains across the bloc.

The center-right force is on track to have around 184 lawmakers in Parliament, a quarter of the 720 in the hemicycle, according to provisional data. It is the only centrist party to have grown in this election: The center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) remained stable, while the liberal Renew Europe group was decimated.

From its position of power, the EPP is best placed to set EU policy, tilting the agenda to the right. “We are the party of industry, we are the party of rural areas, we are the farmers’ party of Europe,” Manfred Weber, the leader of the EPP Group in the Parliament, recently told POLITICO.

While the EPP could once again join a grand coalition with the socialists and liberals, it could also negotiate a working relationship on some issues with parties further to the right — if it can do so without alienating its centrist allies.

France led the rightward lurch with such a crushing victory for the far-right National Rally that liberal President Emmanuel Macron dissolved France’s parliament and called an early election. Early projections suggested the National Rally would win 32 percent or more of the vote, more than twice that of the president’s party.

Shortly later, Macron dissolved parliament and called a fresh election.

The first round of the French Parliamentary election will take place on June 30. The second will be on July 7.

“France needs a clear majority in serenity and harmony. To be French, at heart, is about choosing to write history, not being driven by it,” Macron said.

The decision to dissolve the National Assembly was met with disbelief by his supporters, with several people screaming “Oh no” as he spoke to a crowd in a televised address from his party headquarters in Paris.

Supporters of the far-right National Rally (RN) party celebrated as Macron announced the dissolution of parliament, something the party had called for as the scale of their victory became apparent.

They sang “Dissolution, dissolution!” as they watched Macron’s address at an electoral event where long-time RN leader and famed Euroskeptic Marine Le Pen took the floor soon after.

“I can only welcome this decision, which is in line with the logic and architecture of the Fifth Republic,” Ms Le Pen said to ecstatic followers. She said the result of the EU election should send a message to Brussels and “put an end to this painful epoch of globalism.”

As polls predicted, far-right forces made major gains across the bloc. In France, the National Rally raked in nearly a third of the votes, consolidating itself as the leading ultra nationalist group in the next Parliament. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy similarly soared, with more than a quarter of voters backing the group.

The two groups in the European Parliament on the furthest right of the spectrum, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, will control 131 seats in the chamber. That’s not counting the Alternative for Germany’s 15 lawmakers, the 10 representatives of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party, the six belonging to Poland’s Confederation party, or the three members of Bulgaria’s pro-Kremlin Revival party.

Meloni’s advance in Italy undercut the League; once the leading party within the Identity and Democracy group, it lost two-thirds of its seats on Sunday. In Spain, the Vox party was similarly undermined by The Party is Over, a new party led by far-right internet personality Alvise Pérez. That new group secured three seats that could have gone to Vox, which doubled its representation and will have six lawmakers in Brussels during the next term.

If the far right were to form a single group it would be the second largest force in Parliament, behind the traditionally dominant European People’s Party. The rivalries and disagreements within its ranks make that scenario unlikely, but its sheer size will nonetheless put rightward pressure on EU policy.

Sunday’s results suggest European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has a good shot at remaining in office, but not a certain one.

If she wins the backing of the EU’s national leaders, she will need to get Parliament to confirm her bid. In 2019, she was elected with votes from the EPP, the S&D and Renew Europe. The same coalition could, in principle, provide her with another majority.

She’ll need to count the numbers carefully because the vote on her candidacy is a secret one. The last time she asked for Parliament’s support, five years ago, she could in theory count on the support of the 440 lawmakers belonging to the three centrist groups, but got just 383 votes.

This time, the three groups will account for more than 400 of the 720 lawmakers in the hemicycle. That should be enough if all their members vote for her, but it’s not certain they all will: Even some EPP parties have said they will not support her.