Egypt Pushes Diplomatic Initiative to Prevent Escalation in Lebanon

Egypt has intensified its diplomatic efforts to prevent a new conflict in Lebanon, following the recent Israeli strike that killed Hezbollah’s top military commander, Haytham Ali Tabtabaei, in southern Beirut. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aati met with Lebanese officials on Wednesday, beginning with a meeting at Baabda Palace with President Joseph Aoun, signaling Cairo’s commitment to supporting Lebanon and advancing a broader peace initiative.

Abdel Aati expressed concern over any potential escalation in Lebanon, emphasizing that Egypt would continue all efforts to safeguard the country from conflict.

“I conveyed to President Aoun the directives of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to provide Egypt’s full support and assistance, and to leverage Egypt’s network of relationships to promote calm, implement the ceasefire, and defuse any potential conflict,” he said.

He also reaffirmed support for the Lebanese army’s readiness to take control of all positions in southern Lebanon and for the government’s decisions regarding the disarmament of non-state actors.

“We are making every effort to prevent any aggression against Lebanon. We are fully committed to Lebanon’s stability and to the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 in all its aspects,” Abdel Aati said, praising the Lebanese state and army for extending government authority in the south.

He warned that the region is on the brink of full-scale escalation, which serves no party, and stressed that diplomacy remains the only solution.

According to sources cited by Al-Modon, the Egyptian initiative builds on a series of consultations with Lebanon, Israel, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. Prior to Abdel Aati’s visit, Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad held talks with Hezbollah, presenting a preliminary set of ideas aimed at limiting hostilities and freezing Hezbollah’s military activities in exchange for gradual Israeli withdrawals and prisoner releases. While Hezbollah treated these proposals as a gesture of goodwill, they were not yet considered a full initiative.

According to sources familiar with the Egyptian working paper, the current proposal is more structured, reflecting modifications coordinated with U.S., Israeli, and Saudi officials. It emphasizes consolidating state authority in southern Lebanon, eventually extending northward, and envisions a phased implementation of disarmament measures. However, key details remain sensitive and are subject to further negotiation.

The Israeli strike that killed Tabtabaei occurred hours before Abdel Aati’s arrival, raising questions about the timing. Experts suggest two possible interpretations: the attack could either be intended to pressure Lebanon into accepting the initiative under duress, or it could be aimed at disrupting it altogether. 

During a dinner held in his honor attended by a wide array of Lebanese politicians, Abdel Aati reportedly warned that if the current crisis is not resolved, Lebanon could face a major conflict before the holidays. Sources described his comments as a discreet but serious warning reflecting both Egyptian concern and Israeli pressure transmitted through Cairo.

Egypt’s mediation plan envisions a two-stage process. In the first phase, Lebanese and regional parties, including Hezbollah, review and negotiate the proposed framework of ideas. In the second phase, Egypt is expected to host delegations for formal negotiations, alongside representatives from the so-called “Quintet” countries involved in regional security efforts. While Hezbollah has expressed cautious openness to the initiative, it remains wary of Israel’s commitment, citing repeated violations of the ceasefire since it was reached a year ago.