The statement issued by the five-nation group on Lebanon – the US, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt – in its recent meeting in Doha has ended the “time-buying” tactic that Lebanese politicians have deployed to date. The French initiative, which called for the nomination of Suleiman Frangieh for the presidency, was an element in this “buying of time” approach; much like the 2016 agreements that led to the promotion of Gen. Michel Aoun to the presidency. 

In Doha, the five-nation group put forth presidential, procedural, economic, and sovereign standards to help Lebanon move toward a final solution. Still, some believe that laying out these goals only reveals the hidden intent of not achieving any of them. Many in Lebanon are still hoping for a peaceful resolution to the crisis in the region. Yet if carrots won’t work, then the international community will have to use sticks.

The US, EU, and Gulf Cooperation Council are ready to implement painful sanctions against those impeding Lebanon’s reconstruction process. A European diplomatic source who keeps close track of the Lebanese issue reported that there is a common agreement between Arab, European, and international parties that sanctions should be utilized if the current crisis continues to unfold. 

Reports now sitting on decision-makers’ desks in Lebanon point to the investigation into the Beirut port explosion file as a starting point. In my view, the very forces that impede the democratic election of a president in Lebanon are those that obstruct the investigation into the August 4, 2020 port explosion in Beirut. Many of the suspects have enjoyed protection from their political patrons, blocking justice from being served to the 20 European victims who died in the disaster. EU policymakers are considering the option of launching a tribunal specializing in the case, which could work in collaboration with the Lebanese judicial investigator, Tarek Bitar. 

To ensure accountability, international arrest warrants will be issued for the people identified by Bitar. This action would send a clear message to those who are hindering the political process in Lebanon, while also solidifying a show of solidarity with the Lebanese public. It would set right the path laid out by French President Emmanuel Macron, when his initiative failed to address the repeated and continuing call from the Lebanese people for an independent international investigative commission into the Beirut Port explosion. 

However, a diplomat familiar with the details of the initiative expressed the belief that this solution would provide the necessary push to the forces obstructing the democratic election of a president. He further pointed out that the opposition could leverage other diplomatic levers, such as the inclusion of Hezbollah’s political wing on the EU’s terrorism watchlist. 

Still, it remains to be seen whether this vision can be translated into tangible action.